Why Futurists Start With A Backward Glance

The past is filled with patterns of human triumphs, mistakes, and missed opportunities. These moments can give us a strong sense of how humans, governments, markets, and organizations might react to profound change. A century before COVID-19, the 1918 influenza pandemic similarly upended global healthcare, exposing the limitations of existing care delivery systems. Looking back at this period offered significant insights into how a crisis catalyzes transformation. In that era, patients received healthcare in their homes, by general practice doctors who were also members of their community. Just as COVID-19 forced a rapid transition to virtual care, the devastation of the 1918 pandemic led to the expansion of healthcare systems, the professionalization of medicine, and public health reforms. Despite the realities of the moment, the feelings of fear and uncertainty people felt in public settings in 2020 were eerily reminiscent of the fears that marked the 1918 influenza crisis.

Each decade of our past tells stories about how change develops. The Industrial Revolution demonstrated how rapid technological advancements could reshape economies; the Space Race of the 1960s highlighted how global competition could fuel scientific breakthroughs; and September 11 proved how tragedy could bring a country’s diverse communities together in a shared purpose. Adding the context of examples from human history brings rigor and believability to the futuring process, upping the likelihood that people can understand potential opportunities and consequences in tangible ways.

But how do futurists do this? How do we pick which pieces of the past apply to what we’re trying to solve for, and how do we arrive at tangible takeaways? Here are three ways history can help you understand what could be.

1. A frame for ideation

History doesn’t always offer clear predictions for how change might unfold, but it can provide a scaffolding or starting point for the imagination. A historical lens anchors storytelling, making speculative futures more relatable and actionable by drawing on connections to known human experiences.

In 2023, IDEO partnered with LeadingAge California to explore a fundamental question: What does it mean to age well in a world of rapid change? Through a series of workshops, we examined how traditional older adult care, long centered on institutionalized models, could be reshaped by shifting demographics, emerging technologies, and evolving cultural expectations. We started by grounding our work in historical precedent to add credibility. Then, we crafted six bold, forward-looking narratives that reimagined aging as a deeply human-centered experience, one defined by purpose, autonomy, and connection rather than decline. These stories introduced new possibilities for older adulthood, where updated mindsets on aging, advances in AI, regenerative medicine, and assistive technology redefine what it means to grow old, allowing people to maintain their physical and cognitive health in previously unimaginable ways. Using the past as a framework clarified how services for this population could be reimagined to evolve in response to social and technological change. Within these constraints, we designed futures that felt not just visionary but entirely within reach, creating a roadmap that could help bring these ideas to life.

2. A way to stress-test plausibility

History helps make future scenarios more credible by grounding them in familiar patterns and contexts. This thought experiment requires thinking critically about the past. What factors spurred a particular phenomenon? What kinds of decisions shaped action, and by whom? What decisions did people decide not to make? By examining these dynamics, we gain insights into how similar forces might unfold under new conditions and use them to inform our stories. A backward glance at the mental health impact of isolation during 2020 could provide insights into the potential effects of remote work and virtual schooling on future communities. When we think this way, the past becomes a launchpad rather than a limitation.

These methods were extremely useful in 2023, when we partnered with the DC Federal City Council to reimagine the future of downtown Washington, DC, a city with both a storied past and a future that can change radically every election cycle. To generate bold, forward-thinking ideas for revitalizing downtown neighborhoods, we convened over 100 stakeholders. We asked them to identify the past and present to surface patterns of transformation and areas of opportunity in the city. With that foundation in place, the teams developed plausible future narratives, layering ideas such as new pedestrian zones, green spaces, and artist live/work zones onto physical maps of each neighborhood. These activities helped them create stories of the future that didn’t just feel aspirational but were deeply rooted in the city’s identity, its people, and the existing infrastructure. By looking to history, the workshop unlocked new pathways for action, moving closer to the goal of a thriving, community-driven urban future.

‍3. A method for predicting outcomes

The future is about identifying strategic choices that will shape the future we want to build. History reveals how communities, industries, and organizations responded to change, offering a glimpse into potential outcomes that could have a significant impact.

IDEO’s 2024 collaboration with San Francisco public television and radio station KQED explored how public media will have to evolve to remain relevant and essential in a rapidly shifting landscape. In a day-long workshop, the IDEO team guided the KQED board through a method developed by futurist Sohail Inayatullah called “The Futures Triangle,” which examines the weight of the past, the push of the present, and the pull of the future. By discussing these different forces, we surfaced a key tension: In an era of hyper-personalized content and decentralized media consumption, KQED’s legacy of trusted journalism and civic storytelling can be both a powerful foundation and a potential constraint. So, how will these existing forces shape the future? With this insight in mind, participants crafted stories and created artifacts from the future that drew a picture of a public media ecosystem more deeply embedded in community life, one that reaches audiences through interactive, on-demand, and participatory experiences. They explored how KQED could expand even further as a multimedia organization and community convener to become an agile, responsive, and dynamic force for engagement across generations and platforms. By analyzing the historical forces pushing and pulling the public news source, the group identified key strategic choices KQED could make today to shape the desired outcome of a more inclusive, innovative, and community-driven future for public media.

To build bold, forward-looking futures, we must look backward—not to recreate the past, but to navigate the future with intention. History provides more than context; it offers structure for creativity, a stress test for credibility, and a mirror through which we anticipate consequences. When we weave these insights into our foresight practice and design efforts, we can imagine futures that are rigorous, plausible, and transformational, drawing on the past to shape scenarios that inspire action and meaningful change. Years from now, when futurists look back on today, they will be reading the signals we left behind.